Ever read the Black Swan by Taleb?
Having said that, Taleb did say that Trump may get in.
From the perception of main stream media we had a Black Swan event (that is according to Wikipedia)
- The event is a surprise (to the observer).
- The event has a major effect.
- After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.
Now, while the book is well worth reading, one take out which I found very interesting was the difference between being street smart and analytically smart.
What we do know is that Trump got in because he was a salesman (said what he needed to get in) and street smart. Hillary probably hired the best talent, but it is probably a case of being too smart for your own good. If Hillary had played another professional politician, she would have probably won. But Donald did not play by the traditional rules.
I am not arguing who should or should not be President. Ultimately this is a decision for the American Electorate and the voting system they use.
Elections are a complicated issue, and to run for politics takes a special kind of courage, (you need thick skin) but Trump did a few things different….
He kept his message simple. (Hillary’s responses were too nuanced, voters had to ask “what did that mean?”).
Now in designing UX systems we have an expression Don’t make me think. KISS Keep it simple st….
He came across as authentic (rather than over polished and over thought).
You are playing to voters not Wall Street analysts…
He built a brand from the name onwards that worked… he played the game well, he could teach most academics a thing or two about game theory.
He played it as a game and played to win. He used the channels that were most effective. Social media and his message was played time and time again. Name repetition works. Repeat it often enough. People share comments that get their emotions charged. (After all, that’s why gossip works).
One book I always think one should read is Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds written by Charles MacKay, published 1847, to get a sense of how irrational crowds really are and how they may be rational for a person does not hold for a crowd.